1 is the minimum value used (uncertainty).
1 is the mean value with a standard deviation of 0.
1 is the closest point value.
1 is the closest point value over the mean.
1 is the maximum value (complexity).
| Points |
Complexity |
Effort |
Uncertainty |
| 1 |
Single straightforward task |
< 2 hours |
Clear requirements & solution |
| 2 |
Simple task with known solution |
2-4 hours |
Minor clarifications needed |
| 3 |
Multiple simple tasks |
4-8 hours |
Some unknowns exist |
| 5 |
Multiple interconnected tasks |
1-2 days |
Several unknowns |
| 8 |
Complex problem, clear approach |
2-3 days |
Significant unknowns |
| 13 |
Complex problem, multiple approaches |
3-5 days |
Many dependencies |
| 21 |
System-wide changes needed |
1-2 weeks |
Technical feasibility unclear |
| 34 |
Multiple system interactions |
2-3 weeks |
High risk areas identified |
| 55 |
Architectural changes required |
3-4 weeks |
Major unknown dependencies |
| 89 |
Too complex to estimate |
> 1 month |
Cannot estimate confidently |